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We have 22 results for Scenario Analysis.
1 | 2 | NextThinking, Not Screaming, About Iranian-Israeli Tensions 1 Citation EXCERPT: Decision-makers are failing to solve the extremely dangerous but artificially created crisis between Iran and Israel; indeed, they repeatedly throw gasoline on the flames. Can academic analysis resting on systematic methodology provide the necessary insights to enable the world to move forward? It is time to make a serious attempt.Iranian-Israeli relations have been lurching from one insult or aggravating incident to another for many years, with decision-makers seeming to learn littl, technorati.com
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Israel's Conflict Resolution Strategy 1 Citation Continuing the development of a model for analyzing Iranian-Israeli relations?Nations, regimes, politicians are always unsatisfied, so the method of choice for addressing their dissatisfactions is a key determinant of behavior (rather than, for example, the mere fact of their being dissatisfied). Therefore, the ?Conflict Resolution Strategy? parameter merits particular attention.A simple technique for starting to measure a regime?s conflict resolution strategy is to put dated evidence along the, technorati.com
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1 Citation I do not claim to know the truth of the story that follows, but it matches observed behavior ominously well and thus deserved to be taken seriously? At some point during the last decade of the last century, a consensus arose among the Israeli ruling elite that force was the path to success. Sensing, if vaguely, both the length of the path and the risks of the strategy, these decision-makers designed a plan. Perhaps they designed the whole plan in detail at the beginning; perhaps they just laid, technorati.com
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Simulations augment, don't replace, thinking 1 Citation This article by Irving Wladawsky Berger discusses the promise and pitfalls of simulations of large complex systems. Starting with the vision of Psychohistory from Asimov's Foundation trilogy, the author notes that a highly unexpected event ("the Mule" for Asimov, fashionably called the " Black Swan " today) can violate the key assumptions of a model and generate an unanticipated outcome, such as the current financial crisis. The solution Berger proposes is to keep humans in the lo, technorati.com
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1 Citation Risk is all-pervasive. Wherever there is uncertainty, risk prevails. The concept of risk is omnipresent from the existence of mankind, but now it has become more relevant due to interdependence of economies throughout the globe., technorati.com
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China Scenario Analysis: Possible structural changes to the Chinese market and economy. 1 Citation NOTE: This article is largely based on material taken from a DiligenceChina piece published about 6 months ago. Much of the older material from this site was lost due to technical problems, but we will try to salvage and repost pertinent material from time to time. Thanks for you patience. -editor In a major economic shift ? such as the global recession we?re now experiencing ? recovery and transformation go hand in hand. The bankruptcies are easy to see ? new competitive advantages, technorati.com
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CERE06Alspaugh.pdf (application/pdf Object) 1 Citation
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Scenario Development using Computerised Morphological Analysis 1 Citation Morphological analysis (MA) is a non-quantified modelling method for structuring and analysing technical,
organisational and social problem complexes. It is well suited for developing scenarios, and the method is
highly appropriate for complex cases whe, delicious.com
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1 Citation General Morphological Analysis (GMA) is a method for structuring and analysing the total set of relationships contained in multi-dimensional, non-quantifiable, problem complexes. Developed by the Swedish National Defence Research Agency in the middle of t, delicious.com
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1 Citation I came across this article about preparing for the future and think it provides a good basic framework for performing scenario analysis. This is a tool that is often underutilized as it pertains to strategy and innovation efforts.http://www.shambhalainstitute.org/resources.html#Step 1. Refining our sense of purposeScenarios provoke genuine learning when they answer genuine concerns; otherwise, they are merely an academic exercise. The concerns should be compelling, shared by the entire group and, technorati.com
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